There is no doubt that we are rapidly entering the era of generative AI. Since OpenAI launched ChatGPT more than a year ago, the technology industry has set off a generative AI boom. Google, Microsoft, Meta and other giants quickly followed up and launched their own large models and specific applications: adding generative AI functions , bringing a new product experience. However, the impact of generative AI this time is by no means limited to Internet companies and the technology industry. Generative AI, like PC and Internet technologies before it, is bringing about a new productivity technology revolution and having a profound impact on the way production is organized. Compared with the previous AI represented by intelligent assistants, the generative AI represented by ChatGPT is based on deep learning and natural language processing capabilities. It can better understand and generate human language, generate high-quality text in a conversational manner, and complete report writing, Reply to emails, create images, translate text and many other tasks. One year after the release of ChatGPT, generative AI itself is also moving from the cloud to a hybrid model of cloud and terminal. Whether it is a mobile phone or a computer, the latest high-computing processor released by the chip giant supports an AI engine computing power of 75 TOPS and supports the implementation of generative AI models on the terminal side. However, while this coming AI technology revolution will greatly improve work efficiency and productivity, will it also bring about another direct consequence—massive unemployment? This has been a hot topic of discussion in technology and society over the past year. Just last month, Duolingo, the world's largest foreign language learning community, suddenly laid off thousands of contract translators and replaced their jobs with AI products. Even the remaining contract translators were only responsible for reviewing AI-generated content ensures translation quality. This time Duolingo decided to use AI to replace human translators on a large scale, which triggered a lot of discussion on the US Internet. Amid concerns that AI will replace human jobs, Duolingo’s move undoubtedly confirms many people’s worst fears: AI tools are causing massive unemployment among humans. It should be explained that Duolingo laid off external contract workers, not internal regular employees. Outside contractors are a common move in the tech industry to reduce hiring costs. Duolingo also employs external contractors in different languages ??around the world to translate learning content and user interfaces for foreign language learning software services. On the American online forum Reddit, Nick Ciardi, a dismissed contractor, posted a dismissal email sent to him by Duolingo, confirming the massive layoffs. He said that he received the notice of dismissal in mid-December, and that two of the four core members of his team were dismissed. The remaining two will also review AI-generated content to ensure quality. On the Duolingo forum on Reddit, many users expressed gratitude for the work and contributions of these contract translators, and also expressed regret and sentimentality about the prospect of AI replacing human translators. One user wrote, “Unfortunately, it is only a matter of time before AI replaces humans in the field of translation.” However, some users believe that, at least for now, AI cannot completely replace human high-quality translation. To achieve accurate translation, in addition to being proficient in two languages ??at the same time, you also need to understand different cultures. Even though Google Translate, which has the highest level of AI at present, can convey the meaning of simple sentences, it often suffers from significant deviations. In addition, some users complained that in the German version of Duolingo, previous manual translations contained many unauthentic expressions. Obviously, many translations did not guarantee quality. After the arrival of AI, the translation quality of many neighboring countries may become even more worrying. Over the past year or so, large-scale layoffs have become commonplace in Silicon Valley. Google, Meta, Microsoft, Intel, almost all technology companies have laid off thousands of employees. Apple, which did not lay off employees, became an outlier. However, in this wave of layoffs, the vast majority of technology companies laid off employees who expanded during the growth period in the past few years; this is mainly due to the tightening of capital market conditions, the lingering shadow of the global economic recession, and technology companies’ concerns about future business growth. The outlook is worrying and adjustments need to be made. So why is Duolingo laying off its contract workers en masse at the end of the year, leaving thousands of translators disappointed at Christmas? Is it because they are facing financial difficulties, is it because future growth prospects are low? Duolingo was founded in 2011 at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, with two founders from Guatemala and Switzerland. Luis von Ahn, a computer professor at Carnegie Mellon University, was directly motivated to create Duolingo to help his fellow Guatemalans learn English in a more cost-effective way. After starting his business, he has been serving as CEO and chairman of Duolingo. During Duolingo's more than ten years of development, they have received investment and support from Silicon Valley venture capital and technology giants such as Union Square and Google. Hollywood star Ashton Kutcher was also an early investor in Duolingo. Duolingo went public through an initial public offering (IPO) in June 2021 and currently has approximately 650 formal employees. In addition to foreign language learning, Duolingo also offers online courses in mathematics and music. In fact, Duolingo has always been an active advocate and user of AI. Founder and CEO Feng An said in an interview with VentureBeat that Duolingo uses AI technology in almost every aspect of the application. From recommending learning challenges to specific language training conversations for users, AI is helping users decide on their learning process. AI also brings new service packages and revenue sources to Duolingo. Just last year, Duolingo launched a new GPT-4-supported learning package service, Duolingo Max, with a monthly package of $30 and an annual package of $168. After subscribing to the Max package, users can get AI-generated answers to questions every time they answer a question, which is a service not available in current packages. No matter how you look at it, Duolingo is currently under no performance pressure to lay off employees. They are in the best period in the company's history. Both user growth and revenue are growing rapidly. The stock price is also at an all-time high. It has increased by 187% in the past year and its current market value exceeds US$8.7 billion. During the wave of layoffs at the end of 2022, Duolingo also publicly stated that they did not need to lay off employees and would not freeze recruitment. This is backed by performance. In fiscal year 2023, Duolingo's revenue reached US$484 million for the first time, with revenue increasing by more than 40% year-on-year in each quarter, and it has also successfully turned a profit since last year. In the most recent third quarter of last year, Duolingo's monthly active users increased by 47% year-on-year to 83.1 million, and daily active users increased by 63% year-on-year to 24.2 million, of which paid users increased by 60% to 5.8 million. Revenue in the third quarter of last year was US$138 million, a year-on-year increase of 43%, and net profit was US$2.81 million, a year-on-year increase of 115%. Duolingo does not have much external pressure to reduce spending, nor does it face the bleak prospect of slowing or even shrinking business growth. Under such good conditions, large-scale layoffs of contract workers before Christmas can only be explained as a move by listed companies to pursue financial performance. Since the layoffs were not regular employees and did not constitute large-scale layoffs, Duolingo did not even issue a statement and did not need to respond to the outside world. According to Blake Vente, a large model software engineer at the e-book company Audible, this incident may cause harm to everyone: (the decline in translation quality) will affect the user experience, and large-scale layoffs of contract workers will be a blow. Morale, ultimately affects company culture. If users begin to feel that Duolingo is an AI product company, they may directly use personalized generative AI products, such as MemBot, to replace Duolingo's expensive service packages in the future. Although Duolingo's layoff of contract workers is a normal business decision for a listed company to cut expenses, the move to lay off employees before Christmas has caused a lot of controversy. Capitalists are so cruel. AI is gradually replacing daily work, so after translation is eliminated, will your position be the next one? After Duolingo, perhaps Google is the next company to have large-scale AI lead to massive layoffs. There are reports that Google is replacing traditional Google Ads with AI tools with more personalized and natural language capabilities. This means that AI can search massive websites for advertisers and generate relevant keywords, slogans, descriptions and images, greatly optimizing Advertising service generation process. This obviously improves the experience of Google's advertising services and speeds up work efficiency, but on the other hand, it also means that Google does not need so many advertising sales employees. Therefore, Google As it considers reorganizing its advertising sales department, more than 30,000 current advertising sales employees may lose their jobs in large numbers. Google, which just celebrated its 25th birthday, is currently in a mid-life crisis, with business growth slowing and core competitiveness facing challenges. Google CEO Sundar Pichai has publicly stated that proactive measures need to be taken to avoid future adverse situations. Early last year, Google laid off 12,000 employees. It might not be a surprise if Pichai decides to make major layoffs in ad sales in 2024. During the Hollywood cast and crew strike last year, generative AI tools were also a focus of negotiations between labor and management; Disney's use of AI to produce title animations caused a lot of controversy. Screenwriters, actors and post-production staff are worried that producers will use AI tools extensively and use their existing works for training, which will force them to cut their salaries or even lose their jobs in the future. Their concerns are not unfounded. The film and television industry is increasingly using AI tools. Major studios such as Warner Pictures, Netflix, and Disney are already using AI for simple tasks such as creating special effects, generating subtitles, and writing synopses. Streaming media giants such as Amazon, Netflix, and Apple are Internet technology giants with strong technical capabilities and have industry-leading technical talent reserves. It is only a matter of time before AI fully enters film and television production in the future. Last summer, Disney's Marvel directly used AI to generate the opening credits of the TV series "Secret Invasion"; and for the originally dangerous animal participation, AI was directly used to generate images such as lions, eliminating the need for Lion and Tiger took the photo themselves. The Writers Guild eventually reached an agreement with the producers. In addition to increasing conditions such as remuneration and secondary sharing, Hollywood producers have also made compromises on AI tools, promising not to use AI to write or rewrite literary content. AI-generated content cannot be regarded as source material, which means AI-generated content must not affect the screenwriter’s rights to the work or individual rights. During the five-month general strike, the screenwriters did not hesitate to shut down the industry and lose their salaries in exchange for concessions from the producers and achieved a temporary victory. But in the next labor negotiation in three years, facing AI that may be greatly upgraded, the screenwriters may be in a more difficult situation. Will AI cause massive unemployment? On this issue, pessimists and optimists have completely different views. But no one can deny that the popularity of generative AI tools will indeed replace many simple programmed tasks and reduce the demand for personnel in these jobs. The most direct example is that AI drawing tools such as Midjourney have begun to replace traditional artists and cartographers. In a previous interview with Sina Technology, Hari Srinivasan, vice president of product management for LinkedIn’s talent solutions business, said that if we look back on history, technological changes will always change traditional jobs and content, and some jobs have indeed will disappear. But at the same time, technological changes will bring more innovation and creativity and create more new jobs. He emphasized that working professionals need to master new skills and new learning methods. Updating one's work skills and adapting to the workplace needs in the AI ??era has become a realistic requirement for retaining competitiveness in the workplace and staying in the workplace to work hard. According to a LinkedIn report, in the next eight years, that is, by 2030, 65% of the world's professional skills will change; in the past eight years, 25% of professional skills have already changed. In other words, if a working person wants to continue to maintain professional competitiveness in 2030, he must update nearly two-thirds of his professional skills and master those job skills that AI cannot temporarily replace. Otherwise, he may not be qualified for the workplace in the AI ??era. demand, facing the fate of being eliminated. r